The 2021 Mariners Will Finish…
A peak ahead at what could be for the Mariners
20 years. It has been 20 years since the Mariners last made the playoffs. That is good for the longest draught in American sports. The club tied a MLB record with 116 wins that season — and hasn’t sniffed the playoffs since. How bad has the franchise been? Fans were ecstatic about a 27–33 season. For those of you counting at home that is 6 games under .500. Excited about a team that hit .226 with a .678 OPS (third worst in baseball) and scored just 254 runs, while posting a 5.02 ERA and giving up 303 runs. Not exactly numbers that leave people thinking this team is a World Series contender next season.
But there were some reasons for hope following the shortened 2020 season. Kyle Lewis and J.P. Crawford flashed All-Star potential — and in Lewis’ case maybe even MVP potential. Marco Gonzalez continued to prove he was a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, while Justus Sheffield showed he has the repertoire and mentality to be a #2-#3 guy.
Unfortunately, there isn’t a while lot else to be excited about. The shortened season didn’t enable the Mariners to give too many of the younger guys an opportunity to play and much of the remainder of the roster was made up of veterans or utility players that won’t make up the core of a World Championship team.
However, I am choosing to be an optimist today. This was still a better season than expected. The Mariners feel closer to building a consistent playoff contender now than any time since the mid-90s (yes, that long ago).
Catchers
· Tom Murphy (29): Year 1 Arbitration ($577K in 2020)
· Luis Torrens (24): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($568K in 2020)
· Cal Raleigh (23): Double-A
The position appears to be in fairly good condition, which isn’t something the ballclub has been able to say for a while. Torrens is under team control for next year while Murphy will be in his first year of arbitration; an inexpensive contract it seems highly likely the team will extend him an offer. Neither has been a standout, but both are good defensive catchers and proven to be good hitting catchers that could make a strong contribution as a tandem.
The team has a strong prospect in the switch-hitting Raleigh, but he was really hurt by not having a minor league season. Having two assets should give Raleigh another year to prepare in the Minors, or worse case scenario the Mariners trade Torrens or Murphy at the deadline and Raleigh only needs to come up for the final third of the season.
Predicted 2021 Catchers: Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens
Infielders
· Kyle Seager (33): $18.5M in 2021. Last year of 7yr. $100M contract. ($19.5M in 2020)
· Dee Gordon (32): $14M club option w/ $1M buyout in 2021. ($13.5M in 2020)
· Evan White (24): $1.3M in 2021. 2nd season of 6 yr. $24M contract. ($1.3M in 2020)
· J.P. Crawford (26) Year 1 Arbitration ($576K in 2020)
· Dylan Moore (28): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($570K in 2020)
· Ty France (26): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($567K in 2020)
· Shed Long (24): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($567K in 2020)
· Noelvi Marte (18): Rookie Ball
A lot of youth, but also a lot of question marks. Can Evan White become a more consistent hitter? Can J.P. Crawford hold up for a full 162-game season? Is Dylan more for real? Or was this shortened season a fluke? How consistent can Ty France be over an entire season? And what in the heck does Kyle Seager really have left — after a hot start he really struggled down the stretch of the season. Losing Gordon’s lopsided contract and haphazard play is a positive — and the unit has a lot of flexibility with Moore and France able to play nearly any position. But where does the consistent offense come from? And the farm system doesn’t have anyone who is close to being ready to come up and contribute. Feels like a veteran second or first baseman (who could also DH) would make this unit much, more formidable than it is today.
2021 Prediction: Evan White, Ty France, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore and Jake Lamb
Outfielders
· Mitch Haniger (30): Year 2 Arbitration ($3M in 2020)
· Kyle Lewis (25): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($565K in 2020)
· Phillip Earvin (28): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($573K in 2020)
· Timmy Lopes (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($567K in 2020)
· Jose Marmelojos (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($565K in 2020)
· Braden Bishop (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Jake Fraley (25): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Sam Haggerty (26): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Jarred Kelenic (21): Double-A
· Taylor Trammell (23): Double-A
· Julio Rodriguez (19): Single-A
A lot of options here, but are any of them good? Marmelojos and Lopes are nice stories, but are deep bench players at best. Bishop and Fraley have been given multiple opportunities to play at the Major League level with little success. Haniger has flashed so much potential, but just can’t stay healthy; and you have to wonder what he has left as he enters his 30s and won’t have played a game in nearly 18 months by the time the 2021 season starts. Lewis is the only surefire starter of the group. He flashed All-Star caliber potential at the beginning of the season, but really struggled as teams adjusted him. Feels like Lewis lost the most from the shortened season as he could have gained invaluable experience if given another 100 games to adjust to the new way teams were pitching him. His work ethic and skill make you think he will return to the guy he was at the beginning of the year though. With Haniger a question mark the other two outfield positions remain huge question marks. The Mariners will need to quickly decide if Kelenic and Trammell are ready to play full-time or if they need to add at least one veteran bat. If Haniger can’t get back it feels like a veteran bat with some power manning one of the corner outfield positions would go a long way towards making this team a true playoff contender in 2021.
Dipoto has really looked to build this team through the outfield with 4 of the top 10 prospects here. Lewis, Kelenic, Trammell and Rodriguez all have big expectations and the potential to be the core of the Mariners for quite some time. Rodriguez is still a few years out, but Lewis has shown he can play, it was surprising Kelenic didn’t get an opportunity to play this year and Trammell is getting close to being ready for the callup. While teams like to keep guys in the minors to keep them in their arbitration years longer, it would be shocking if Kelenic and Trammell aren’t in the majors at some point next season.
2021 Prediction: Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, Mitch Haniger and Jake Fraley
Starting Pitchers
· Yusei Kikuchi (30): $16.5M in 2021. Last year 3 yr. $43M contract. ($15.5M in 2020)
· Marco Gonzalez (28): $5.25M in 2021. First year 4 yr. $30M contract.
· Justus Sheffield (24): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($566K in 2020)
· Justin Dunn (24): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($564K in 2020)
· Nick Margevicius (25): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Ljay Newsome (23): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Emerson Hancock (21): Single-A
· Logan Gilbert (23): Double-A
· George Kirby (22): Single-A
· Brandon Williamson (22): Single-A
This was the unit that far and away exceeded expectations this year. Finished the season with a 21–20 record, 4.41 ERA and a 2.48 K/BB — not stellar numbers but that included consistently starting Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome. If you look at the core 3 of Marco Gonzalez, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn you see a 15–6 record with a 3.58 ERA and 2.58 BB/K ratio. Much stronger numbers; and quite frankly Dunn is dragging a lot of those numbers down. What this team could really use is a veteran ace to relieve some of the pressure from Gonzalez and Sheffield who are more natural number 2 and 3 level starters. Highly unlikely the organization will fork over the money for a top free agent or depart with the top-level prospects they worked to acquire in a trade. Still, if the team could bring in another strong veteran — think someone along the lines of Tajuan Walker who is rumored to want to return — and get one of the young pitchers in the minors to make the jump up and this could easily be a top 10–12 rotation.
The Mariners have been building a strong, young corps by drafting college pitchers early in the last four three drafts. With that said Gilbert is the only guy who is close to being ready to make the jump to the majors — another player hurt badly by the lack of a minor league season. But expect to see Gilbert at some point if the Mariners can’t stay in contention. The staff is also full of young guys, so don’t be shocked if Dipoto adds a veteran free agent.
2021 Prediction: Marco Gonzalez, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Dunn and Jose Quintana
Relief Pitchers
· Kendall Graveman (29): 1 yr. $3M club option for 2021. ($2M in 2020)
· Carl Edwards (29): Year 3 Arbitration ($950K in 2020)
· Yoshihisa Hirano (36): Year 1 Arbitration ($1.6M in 2020)
· Seth Frankoff (32): Year 1 Arbitration ($563K in 2020)
· Brandon Brennan (29): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($590K in 2020)
· Casey Sadler (30): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($577K in 2020)
· Matt Magill (30): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($575K in 2020)
· Erik Swanson (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($568K in 2020)
· Walker Lockett (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($566K in 2020)
· Taylor Guilbeau (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($565K in 2020)
· Anthony Misiewicz (25): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Joey Gerber (23): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Yohan Ramirez (25): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Brady Lail (27): Pre-Arbitration Contract Tender ($563K in 2020)
· Aaron Fletcher (24): UFA in 2021. ($563K in 2020)
Not a lot of young talent in the minors ready to step in. Perhaps Newsome and Margevicius return to the pen, but some development is needed here.
2021 Prediction: Taylor Guilbeau, Carl Edwards, Yohan Ramirez, Corey Sadler, Nick Margevicius Brad Peacock, Jake McGee and Greg Holland
In a 60-game season the Mariners called on 24 different players from the bullpen…. 24! Now one was OF Tim Lopes in a blow out, but still that number alone tells you the bullpen was bad. But don’t worry I have more stats.
In a season where the Mariners missed the playoffs the pen went 6–13 with 9 blown saves with a 5.92 ERA and 1.6 K/BB. Again, this is in just 60 games. Yoshihisa Hirano was named the closer at the end of the year — and he had a 5.84 ERA with 1.38 K/BB. You really have to squint to find anything positive from this unit. Taylor Guilbeau was fine as a left-handed specialist and Kendall Graveman seemed to find a groove after being moved from the rotation. But Graveman is on a club option for $3M next season and one must wonder if a middle reliever is worth that kind of money. Carl Edwards has been a solid performer in 4 of his 5 seasons prior to joining the Mariners — the problem is his poor season was 2019. Now coming off an injury, who knows what you can expect from him in 2021. Yohan Ramirez, Joey Gerber and Corey Sadler were young arms who showed some promise but walked too many batters and gave up too many long balls.
All this to basically say the Mariners would have made the playoffs had the bullpen been even average; and in reality Guilbeau is the only guy who should be expected to start 2021 in the Mariners pen. Like many GMs nowadays, Dipoto has tried to skimp on the bullpen and find young power arms who could find themselves with the Mariners. The problem is Dipoto hasn’t shown any propensity for identifying the correct arms, so something must change. The team needs to add a few veterans and find a way to identify pitchers with a better mix of pitches and mental aptitude to survive life in the pen. Basically, blow the entire thing up and let’s start 2021 with all new guys. I mean it couldn’t be worse than this season, right?
